Scientists are designing a computer - simulation , which predicts the fate of all living things on Earth , simulating the growth , migration and life of creatures and their food chain
Climate science has been transformed from a large computer , or from his simulations that can predict changes in land , oceans and atmosphere . Now researchers are hoping that they can do the same thing for ecology , creating an ambitious model , which simulates the whole ecosystem , anywhere in the world .
Researchers in " Microsoft " and the UN are hoping that this model may provide a better understanding of how ecosystems function of our fragile planet .
The model labeled as " Madingley " , this simulation seize growth , migration and life of creatures and their food chain . Environmentalists have spent the last two years to develop this simulation , which use real data about changes , such as the migration of animals .
They hope that this will lead to something known as " Models of the ecosystem " , or gems ( General Ecosystem Models ) , to include the whole structure and function of every ecosystem in the world .
What is the model " Madingley " ?
Model " Madingley " includes a broad structure and function of ecosystems in the world .
It does this by simulating the process - including nutrition , reproduction and death - which leads to the distribution of creatures .
Ecologists and biologists have spent the last two years developing simulation " open " , which uses real data about carbon turnover as a starting point .
From the ratio between the mass of individual organisms and time how long they live , to the distribution of biomass throughout the Earth , this model gives results that are consistent with current understanding of ecosystems .
Model " Madingley " that can radically improve understanding of the biosphere and help in making decisions.
Applied in the African savannah , for example , " Gems " can be used as a model for total biomass of all plants , animals that feed on them and then carnivores that feed on aphids animals .
This would represent the circulation of energy and food ingredients within the food chain over time . By using this model , ecologists can explore how these parameters can change health , eg in response climate change , or during hunting without permission .
" Until five years ago , people were saying that it is impossible to build a global model of ecosystems because of the complexities and numerous uncertainties ," says Stephen Emmott , head of the Laboratory of Cambridge . " But now we have done this and we lack only the publication of scientific papers " .
A project encouraging
Modeling of each organism within an ecosystem is impossible since it would require too large a force computer . But researchers say they can get valid results by applying the rules about how the creatures behave in ways groups .
The current version is the prototype , designed to encourage other scientists to be involved in this project .
' We are dropping this model as open source , allowing everyone to inspect the current version of the model , or to develop it further , " say the researchers .
But , so far this has proved controversial model . Some ecologists believe that nature is too complex to be modeled in this way .
Others say that the results of these models are too uncertain to be the basis of important decisions .
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